patterns / slow_bleed

credit thesis

Slow bleed

3+ consecutive years of declining net assets or headcount — no single event a bank would notice, but the trajectory is unambiguous

the signature — what the register must show
staff ≥5
3+ consecutive year-on-year declines in net assets OR headcount

Why it matters

No single event a bank's covenant systems would flag — just an unambiguous multi-year trajectory. Banks see defaults; this is the years BEFORE the default, visible only in the filed series.

The play

Early credit / turnaround conversation while options still exist. For a buyer: the price gets better every year, but so does the damage — timing is the whole game.

How it's kept honest

The badge is recomputed nightly across the whole index, and re-evaluated live the moment a company files — so a match is always a statement about the current register, not a stale list. Like every signal on the radar: a prompt to look closer, never a verdict.