patterns / reluctant_heir

buyout thesis

Reluctant heir

control changed hands 1–6 years ago and the business has shrunk on the new owner's watch (staff −20% or net assets −15% since takeover) — an owner who may not want what they inherited

the signature — what the register must show
control changed 1–6 years ago
a previous ≥25% owner exists
since the takeover: staff ≤80% or net assets ≤85% of the takeover-date level
staff ≥5

Why it matters

Someone received or bought this company recently and it is shrinking on their watch. Either they can't run it or — more often — they never wanted it: an inheritance, a family handover, a partner's exit they had to absorb. The emotional attachment a founder has is absent.

The play

The warmest buyout lead there is: motivation to sell already exists, nobody has asked yet. A gentle, respectful approach letter tends to land. Alternative: turnaround credit if they want to fight for it.

How it's kept honest

The badge is recomputed nightly across the whole index, and re-evaluated live the moment a company files — so a match is always a statement about the current register, not a stale list. Like every signal on the radar: a prompt to look closer, never a verdict.