patterns / prime_target

buyout thesis

Prime target

a cash-rich owner running a quiet compounder — the two strongest sale signals stacked (well above the base rate); the warmest buyout lead we score

the signature — what the register must show
cashrich_owner AND quiet_compounder both fire — a 62+ cash-rich owner of a business whose equity has compounded 3+ years

Why it matters

The two strongest independent sale signals stacked: an owner posturing to exit (cash) on top of a genuinely good business (compounding). In the backtest the intersection sells well above the base rate — the highest conversion of any flag we tested.

The play

The single warmest buyout lead the radar produces: a good company whose owner is already leaning toward the door. Senior-principal outreach.

How it's kept honest

The badge is recomputed nightly across the whole index, and re-evaluated live the moment a company files — so a match is always a statement about the current register, not a stale list. Like every signal on the radar: a prompt to look closer, never a verdict.